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| Dr. Romy Protacio Signing his book |
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| Me with Ms. Caridad Sanchez |
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| Ms. Caridad Sanchez |
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| Me with Ms.Perla Bautista |
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| Dr. Romy Protacio with his Book |
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| Me with Ernie Garcia |
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| Me with Delia Razon |
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| Dr. Romy Protacio with Sen. Guingona |
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| With Senator Guigona |
With the finding of this cache in Silverton, OR, I completed the requirements for a challenge cache involving finding a cache on every day of the calendar. Not in one single year, mind you, although that would count as well. Yes, a cache find was required for Feb. 29 - fortunately, I had that day covered already when I discovered this challenge and evaluated my list of found caches. Some folks won’t be able to claim this cache until 2012. Bummer guys!
Glad that’s over! Now I can relax and not worry about missing a day and having to wait another year to complete the task!
Posted by Mike on 09/24 at 01:48 PMSick and tired of the cold, rainy spring and summer on the coast we headed to central Oregon to meet up with my parents and camp at East Lake in the Newberry Crater.
Paddle Slap - East Lake
Caching highlights:
Stopped at Salt Creek Falls on the way for a road break and photo ops. Very cool finding Mackie & Annie signatures on the cache I found here!
Fun cache found by paddling across East Lake with Pat and my dad. Awesome lake to paddle! Extremely clear water! Saw big ol’ brown trout swimming around underneath us!
Found several more when we drove around both Paulina and East Lakes scoping out the various campgrounds for a future family gathering.
One cache in the vicinity fairly new and hadn’t been found yet! I was hoping for a FTF but the coords looked to be out in the middle of a lava flow field with no trail access and we weren’t planning any excursions in that direction. The more I read the cache description the less sense it made - description made it sound like it was down near the lake and campground where we were staying but coords were quarter-mile away! Having seen a few of these mistaken coords before I made an educated guess and headed out to look with dad. Bingo! The guess paid off - found it! Unfortunately the owner had corrected his mistake and updated the online coords and someone just beat us to the FTF! Still felt good to figure out the error.
VERY fun weekend getaway!
Posted by Mike on 08/08 at 09:35 AMFor a little background on what the Geocaching Triad is…..check out this blog post and the video found there.
Pat and I had an opportunity to spend some time with our 10 year-old grandson recently while in the Seattle area. He has accompanied me on many geocaches from the age of 5 to the present and I knew he would want to help his ‘popop’ find the remaining two Triad caches. I had already found ORIGINAL STASH TRIBUTE PLAQUE in 2007 for my 1000th milestone cache as noted in this post. This trip I would get Mission 9: Tunnel of Light and Groundspeak Headquarters.
Our hike to Mission 9: Tunnel of Light cache
Yesterday we got up early and headed out of Seattle in the direction of Snoqualamie Pass for a hike to Mission 9: Tunnel of Light . This is also commonly called the APE Cache (click the link for more info). We saw lots of people on the Annette Lake trail but very few were going up toward the cache and tunnel as we were. Actually finding cache was a bit anticlimactic but it allowed us to take in the great scenery in the Snoququalamie Pass area. Pat got some nice pictures.
Groundspeak Headquarters!
Fremont Troll!
Today we made our way down to Groundspeak Headquarters with time to have lunch at the much talked about Red Door before our 2pm appointment. A small group was already gathered in the Lily Pad lobby when we stepped out of the elevator. Grandson and I had a great time checking out the huge treasure chest of goodies and playing around with the interactive, live giant geocaching screen. Didn’t spot Signal the Frog but we had a very nice visit with the greeters and other visitors. Some of them were also there completing the Triad.
Very satisfying to have this geocaching accomplishment under my belt! Now if I could just finish off Oregon’s County and DeLorme challenges!
Posted by Mike on 08/30 at 03:29 PMHanging Rock, at the extreme southern boundary of Coos County, is such a great place to visit and when was asked if I wanted to go along with some geocaching friends I jumped at the chance!
I joined Darren, Butch and Beckie for a really fun day of my favorite kind of geocaching.
The day started, as all great geocaching hike trips should, with a hearty breakfast in Myrtle Point. Once the giant pancakes and biscuits/gravy were gobbled up we headed out.
After picking up a couple of roadside caches between Powers and the Siskiyou NF, we warmed up with a short but steep hike down to the Coquille River Falls cache. We would later rethink the wisdom of tackling this trail on the same day as a hike to Hanging Rock! Also made a side trip to the BIG TREE site to hunt a cache that turned out to be missing! Beckie wanted to return to the pavement via the trail down to Elk Falls so I went along while Butch and Darren drove around to pick us up. We thought it was going to be a quick 1/4 mile jaunt but was actually nearly a mile!
Next was a cache that none of us had found - Sru Lake - the ONLY cache of the day that all of us needed to find. Very pretty little lake especially with the vine maples turning color along the shore!
Sru Lake
Finally we make our way up to the trail head for Hanging Rock. There are a number of trail heads accessing this spectacular formation but we chose the shortest (0.8 mile one way) on this day. What a great view we got from there! You can see for many, many miles in all directions! Took lots of pictures and some video. Check out my video of the adventure…...
THAT is what geocaching is all about for me! Thanks for inviting me along you guys!!
Posted by Mike on 10/17 at 04:16 PMGot out after work with Bad Duck to hunt a bunch of new caches out Cape Arago highway - placed by new cacher, PYNEKONE.
First stop was Pillar Me Timbers near Shores Acres botanical gardens. While we were in the vicinity, Darren also picked up Berliner’s Cliff Sculptures as we made a loop hike back to the truck.
Next, we hunted and found KMX Pine Test and Sea Cow Ranch. KMX cache required expanding our search radius but ample clues enabled us to finally zero in on the hidey hole! Since we were right there, I stopped to check on my own cache - Arago Cliffs Revisited - was a bit more exposed than I liked so covered it better.
Final cache of the afternoon was Concretion Canyon and “Lucy Falls” - took awhile to locate the right trail head but we successfully negotiated the primitive trail to the cache site. Short little video of Darren coming back up onto the main trail…..........
BBBBBBBBad to the Bone…......................
Posted by Mike on 10/15 at 03:43 PMThis spring marked an uptick in geocaching from kayaks as Pat and I bought a pair. This interest was sparked originally by Mackie’s Paddle Me cache series place on Eel Lake back in 2007. In January of this year, Mr. Copper offered to take Bad Duck and I out in his kayaks to find caches at the mouth of the Umpqua River. That day whetted our appetite for getting our own kayaks. In March, Bad Duck and I spent a day on Eel Lake with Mr. Coppers yaks picking off those Mackie caches, although Darren had already found them in 2008….albeit in a much tougher water craft to propel! Finally, Pat and I bought our own - followed shortly by Darren getting his and extras for his family. Emeljay followed suit. All this to say it didn’t take long for the summer to fill with kayaking/geocaching adventures. A pattern would soon develop…...
Darren cleaning off the muck after stepping out of the Yak into knee deep mud!
For many of us, kayaking was getting so fun that when one of us would go out to hide a new water cache others would want to come along. Kinda makes it hard to hide something when people were watching but we were just always looking for an excuse to get out on the water - if it meant having some extra insight into the cache’s location…..so be it! Seems like once a week we were heading out to find a cache one person hid then turning around and hiding a new one. The next weekend the roles would be reversed! It didn’t make for hard-to-find cache locations but it has sure been fun!
Out on Eel Lake today with Bad Duck to find his latest placement - The Cattleyak - he also placed four new ones today, so I will be returning…....probably with a cache or two of my own to hide!
And the beat goes on…....!!
Posted by Mike on 10/03 at 02:03 PMA Digital Camera, popularly known as a DigiCam, is a camera which stores the photos clicked, in a digital form rather than recording them on film. The digital camera is one of the most extraordinary examples of this move because it is so truly diverse from its forerunner. Once a picture has been taken, it can be downloaded to a computer, and then overdone with a graphics program and printed. The huge benefit of digital cameras is that creating photos is both cheap and quick because there is no film processing. However, if the concluding production machine is a laser printer, it doesn't actually matter whether you take an actual snap and then scan it, or take a digital one. In both cases, the picture must finally be condensed to the resolution of the printer. Even the most excellent digital cameras associated to the finest printers cannot generate film-quality images.
The maneuver of a digital camera, from the position of the user, is practically the same as the procedure of other cameras. Most digital cameras replicate their elder movie cousins very well, so a new digital user has slight to panic in the function of the camera. The major dissimilarity in the procedure of the device is in the storage channel, and amount of snaps made among changes. With digital you may be able to zoom many pictures prior to altering your "digital film". The majority cameras use a tiny memory card that is inserted into a slit in the camera body. Typically found at the back a little door on the area of the camera.The use of memory card can help you store your images for future use and are more durable as compared to prints and also allow you to not only edit, organize but also share your pictures with your loved ones.
There are a number of brands available in the market when it comes to digital cameras such as Canon, Fujifilm, Leica, Mamiya, Nikon, Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax, Samsung, Sigma and Sony. Digital cameras mainly come in three types the compact cameras, semi-professional and DSLR cameras. The user can choose the one that best fits its skills. The best brand according to the survey amongst these is found out to be Sony Cyber-Shot, with finest picture quality as well as features. So all you aspiring photographers out there, I am sure the information provided will help you get the best of the cameras available.
For more info log on to - http://www.digital-camera-center.com/.
So what is the best digital camera on the consumer market? The answer is probably the Hasselblad H3D-39. The 39 indicates that it is a 39 mega pixel camera and if you trip down to your local camera dealer you probably won't find one. If you did find one you probably would not want to spend the amount of money that they would be asking for the camera!
So much for what is the best camera, what is the best camera for you? Once again the answer is not as difficult as you might think.
The first question you have to ask yourself is how will I use my new camera? Compact cameras are great for slipping into your pocket or handbag and they do generally take much better pictures than your average phone camera. If you simply want a camera to take happy snaps at parties and when you go on holiday there is a wide range of compact cameras to meet you needs.
If you are thinking about taking up photography seriously and want a camera that will take shots in all lighting conditions then you may want to consider going down the DSLR route. Digital Single Lens Reflex cameras, or DSLRs, are becoming increasingly popular and big manufacturers like Canon, Nikon, Pentax, Samsung, Sony and Olympus have keenly priced entry level models. DSLR cameras have larger sensors compared to compact cameras making them less susceptible to noise. They also allow you to change the lens to cope with different shooting conditions. DSLRs are the preferred choice of professional photographers.
Bridge cameras are almost the same as a DSLR in look and feel except for having a non interchangeable lens. Usually they have a slightly smaller sensor than a DSLR and they also usually come with a large zoom range making them a favourite with bird watchers and nature lovers. Fuji and Panasonic have the most popular range of bridge cameras.
Once you have decided on what type of camera is best for you the next step is decide on the price you want to pay. After that it's time to go bargain hunting.
If you stick with the big camera names I've quoted in this article you won't go far wrong. Also if you look for a year old model, you can often pick one up a camera with as much as 30% off the initial price. Web sites like dpreview and Steve's cameras contain all the latest reviews. If you are still uncertain what model to buy, select a few you think you might like, and then go read the comments and look at the pictures on the forums at dpreview.
Bill Morrison is a keen amateur photographer and recommends http://www.digicamuser.com as a good resource for anyone interested in digital photography.
As I mentioned on Friday before the market opened and in a few hours after the opening Bell, the last day of October's options was very volatile at the beginning, yet the volatility dropped down by the end of the session. The interesting part of Friday's trading was strong advance in the Nasdaq 100 index (2.1% up) at the moment when the rest of the indexes was trying to push down: DJI dropped 0.29%, Russell 2000 declined 0.23% and S&P 500 modestly advanced by 0.20%. At the same time, the indexes from the financial sector strongly declined on Friday: S&P 500 financial dropped by 1.71%, Nasdaq Banking by 1%. Housing and precious metal indexes were strongly negative on Friday as well: Amex Gold, PHLX Gold/Silver and PHLX Housing decline more than 1 %.
Friday's trading session was very interesting from the prospective of volume technical analysis as well. It was the third trading session in a row of high trading activity on all indexes and on some indexes the volume surges were very strong. However, since we hade mixed trends on Friday, we have mixed volume readings on different indexes. On the Nasdaq 100 index we had strong bullish volume surges on the S&P Financial and DJI indexes we had strongly bearish volume surges (especially if we look at them from the lower timeframes). From the longer-term prospective I would consider all volume traded over the last three trading session as Bullish volume, simply , because it was at the top of the recent up-trend. The only under a question for me could be the S&P 500 Financial index which has been in strong decline for the last two trading session.
Overall, I would say that the volume we saw over that last three trading session must affect longer-term trend. The question is when. We have all the factors that precede the reversal down - we had strong up move without even short-term corrections; we had huge bullish volume accumulation during this up move which indicate strongly overbought condition; we had strong increase in volume which could be considered as greedy buying by retail traders, etc. Still, as consistently mentioned before, if market is predisposed to reverse its trend it does not mean it will happen tomorrow. It could happen tomorrow, yet, we still may see a week or even two weeks of side-way trading. To be sure in reversal I would monitor money flow direction on the daily charts (1 bar = 1 day).
The third interesting point is that on Friday we had up move on the US Dollar index which was supported by extremely strong volume. If we take a look at the US Dollar reversal in December 2009 we may see that when US Dollar started to move up this up-move was accompanied by huge volume surges. If we see that US Dollar will continue to recover it could be another point that would support correction on the US stock market - if you compare US Dollar index to S&P 500 index you will see that over the last half of year, in most cases, the US dollar trend is opposite to the S&P 500 trend.
P.S. I'm sorry I did not post any chart snapshoot today - will try to do it tomorrow if I have time.
I would go today with 15-min (1 bar = 15 minutes) chart today as it faster react on the price changes than 30-minutes chart.
Right now, I would not try to guess whether this decline could be strong. For this, I would recommend monitoring 60-min index charts (1 bar = 1 hour). So far, the money flow on that chart is positive which suggests that the trend on this frame is still positive and that even if we see a decline, the indexes still have prover to come back to their highs.
Another important on my opinion point is the strong bullish volume we had yesterday on all indexes. This volume surge may lead to the shift in the supply/demand and at least to halt the current advance.
P.S. You may check money flow for S&P 500, DJI, Nasdaq 100, Russell 200 and other indexes on the MarketVolume's charts (MV Charts)
As I mentioned a week ago in my "Strong Volume" post on October 16, 2010 "if market is predisposed to reverse its trend it does not mean it will happen tomorrow. It could happen tomorrow, yet, we still may see a week or even two weeks of side-way trading." - since October 13, 2010 the S&P 500, DJI, Russell 2000 and other indexes could be considered in the side-way action. The Nasdaq 100 index could be considered moving side-way since October 18, 2010.
As I commented over the past week, this side-way trading was supported by very strong increase in volume and was very volatile. It is not a common thing to see such huge trading volume at the top. As a rule, at the resistance levels volume surges are smaller and more prolonged in time, while at support levels volume surges are very strong. I have scrolled index charts over the past 10 years and I was not able to find any occurrence of such strong increase in daily volume on the S&P 500 and DJI history. Some similar, but smaller increase in volume was noted in period from April 14 until April 19, 2010 when the indexes were traded at the same high levels. My neighbor would say "There's some serious sh... is going on that market"
The critical point on mine view is that on last trading day of the week (Friday, October 22, 2010) volume was down to its normal level. The volatility was down as well. I would even say that volatility was very low, "like a silence before storm". I have already mentioned on Friday (see "Low Trading Volume" post) that such decrease in volume and volatility could imply that the period of movements in investments positions of "Big Guys" could be over; which could mean that the next week could show who won (Bulls or Bears) and whether the market (S&P 500, DJI and Nasdaq 100 indexes) will be trending up or down. Conservative traders who does want to spend a lot of time on technical analysis could simply wait when either October 19th low or October 21st high is broken and then make a trading decision.
On the other hand I will not be surprised to see the market at the same level next week. The Election Day is coming and I do not think that some political leaders would like to see any type of crash or strong move down right now. In 2008 the stock market crashed too deep down. I was always under impression that the market was over-pushed down artificially by some "Big Players". This is why we had in 2009 very strong recovery in short period of time. In 2008 the stock market played on the hand of some party and it looks like now it is helping the same guys. But this is another story, I'm not a politician and I do not play conspiracy games - it may drag away from "cold-blooded' and unemotional analysis. Just in some cases, some weird market swings could be very difficult to explain from the prospective of technical analysis.
Coming back to the technical indicators I would say that
- The daily charts remain to be bullish, yet I see strong overbought signals, especially on the volume based technical indicators. The volatility on daily charts is going up, which is usually happened before Bear markets.
- The hourly charts have mixed signals - some indicators and some indexes are bullish and other indicators and indexes are bearish. The common thing between all indexes on hourly charts is that all of them have overbought signals.
- 30- and 15-min charts could be considered slightly positive: you may see some positive Money Flow, however at the same time you may see negative divergence in the Money Flow.
- Smaller time-frame, after Friday's quiet trading, is very neutral, yet, I would say that some indicators have tendency to become negative.
Note: by referring to volume and advance/decline based technical indicators I refer to MarketVolume charts. See NYSE, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DJI, Russell 2000...
It is worth mentioning that US Dollar index has generated number of oversold signals and many technical indicators on this index indicate bullish sentiment. If the US Dollar reverses and moves up it could be as trigger for the stock market to go down. At the current moment I focus some on mine attention on dollar simply because over the last three month the S&P 500 index trend is chronically opposite to the US Dollar index trend. It's like some invisible hand is trying to direct the stock market by using US Dollar.
Chart #1: The US Dollar and S&P 500 index daily chart with elements of technical analysis applied to the US Dollar index
As a response to the Thursday-Friday strong bearish trading on the S&P 500 financial and strong bullish trading on the Nasdaq 100 we have today Nasdaq 100 attempts to push lower while Financial sector pushes stock market up. Possibly, we may see such sentiment for a whole day.
It looks like US Dollar Index is going up since Friday. I would keep my eye on it as well. If the dollar will continue to go up, it could be one of the reasons for investors to pull money out of the stock market into currency market.
Hanging Rock, at the extreme southern boundary of Coos County, is such a great place to visit and when was asked if I wanted to go along with some geocaching friends I jumped at the chance!
I joined Darren, Butch and Beckie for a really fun day of my favorite kind of geocaching.
The day started, as all great geocaching hike trips should, with a hearty breakfast in Myrtle Point. Once the giant pancakes and biscuits/gravy were gobbled up we headed out.
After picking up a couple of roadside caches between Powers and the Siskiyou NF, we warmed up with a short but steep hike down to the Coquille River Falls cache. We would later rethink the wisdom of tackling this trail on the same day as a hike to Hanging Rock! Also made a side trip to the BIG TREE site to hunt a cache that turned out to be missing! Beckie wanted to return to the pavement via the trail down to Elk Falls so I went along while Butch and Darren drove around to pick us up. We thought it was going to be a quick 1/4 mile jaunt but was actually nearly a mile!
Next was a cache that none of us had found - Sru Lake - the ONLY cache of the day that all of us needed to find. Very pretty little lake especially with the vine maples turning color along the shore!
Sru Lake
Finally we make our way up to the trail head for Hanging Rock. There are a number of trail heads accessing this spectacular formation but we chose the shortest (0.8 mile one way) on this day. What a great view we got from there! You can see for many, many miles in all directions! Took lots of pictures and some video. Check out my video of the adventure…...
THAT is what geocaching is all about for me! Thanks for inviting me along you guys!!
Posted by Mike on 10/17 at 04:16 PMGot out after work with Bad Duck to hunt a bunch of new caches out Cape Arago highway - placed by new cacher, PYNEKONE.
First stop was Pillar Me Timbers near Shores Acres botanical gardens. While we were in the vicinity, Darren also picked up Berliner’s Cliff Sculptures as we made a loop hike back to the truck.
Next, we hunted and found KMX Pine Test and Sea Cow Ranch. KMX cache required expanding our search radius but ample clues enabled us to finally zero in on the hidey hole! Since we were right there, I stopped to check on my own cache - Arago Cliffs Revisited - was a bit more exposed than I liked so covered it better.
Final cache of the afternoon was Concretion Canyon and “Lucy Falls” - took awhile to locate the right trail head but we successfully negotiated the primitive trail to the cache site. Short little video of Darren coming back up onto the main trail…..........
BBBBBBBBad to the Bone…......................
Posted by Mike on 10/15 at 03:43 PMAs predicted in an earlier post, Mackie just couldn’t let well-enough alone - couldn’t tolerate having an unfound cache in his list! So new caches are popping up….this time on and around Tenmile Lake. I guess Eel Lake is getting a bit crowded…..it’s HIS fault!, HE is the one that got us all started on this kayak caching!
Last week Darren and I ran out after work for a FTF on his Tenmile Trestle and today we hunted down Wonderful World of Willow. Keep ‘em comin’ !!
A video for your viewing pleasure…..WARNING…..SPOILER!
Posted by Mike on 10/06 at 03:02 PMOver the last couple of trading sessions we have big divergence between market sectors - some of the market sectors are strongly bearish while other are strongly bullish. Then those sectors that were bullish became strongly bearish and previously bearish sectors became strongly bullish. In the result we have volatile trading.
P.S. US Dollar is up (see US Dollar index) and this is not in the favor of Bulls.
Thanks to a new cacher (pacificbluebird) in the Port Orford area, this little coastal town is coming alive with several new cache hides! Pat and I decided to spend the day in this area to photograph and geocache.
Found (among others):
Wetland Walkway
Paradise Point
Art in the Park
http://coord.info/GC2E44H
For a scene from today’s excursion, check out Pat’s photo journal post
Posted by Mike on 09/04 at 01:31 PMThe indexes followed the dollar and opened lower today, however the Nasdaq 100 index pushes up. Interesting fact is that the number of declining stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index is bigger than the number of the advancing stocks, however, the volume associated with these advancing stocks is higher than the volume associated with declining stocks. It looks like these stocks are holding the Nasdaq 100 index from a drop. The question is for how long...
As predicted in an earlier post, Mackie just couldn’t let well-enough alone - couldn’t tolerate having an unfound cache in his list! So new caches are popping up….this time on and around Tenmile Lake. I guess Eel Lake is getting a bit crowded…..it’s HIS fault!, HE is the one that got us all started on this kayak caching!
Last week Darren and I ran out after work for a FTF on his Tenmile Trestle and today we hunted down Wonderful World of Willow. Keep ‘em comin’ !!
A video for your viewing pleasure…..WARNING…..SPOILER!
Posted by Mike on 10/06 at 03:02 PM
A month ago I picked up two FTF’s in South Slough going after emeljay’s newest paddle caches…...today I’m making nearly the same trek to attempt FTF’s on two new caches by Bad Duck….AND cache owner is joining me for the fun since he needed to get emeljay’s caches. Pre-positioned my pickup at Hinch Road at the upper (southern) reach of the slough so we could make a one-way paddle.
Watch Video Clip (3 min.)
Start of the Journey
My logs for these two caches:
East Valino: Nearly two weeks and FTF was still a possibility today! Sweet! Cache owner joined me for a one-way Charleston to Hinch Road paddle. This was stop # 2 up the slough. Pressure was on as I was having trouble locating the container….owner looking on, you know! Thanks for the company!
Dude, Where’s my Camera?: Second FTF of the afternoon! Very Cool. Didn’t have the benefit of the cache page picture or else I would have zero’d in quicker. High tide allowed me to kayak right up within a few feet. BTW, that log looks strangely like a dragonfly perched on the beach….just sayin’. Continued south to Hinch Road. Thanks for the fun, dude that misplaced his camera.
We timed this pretty well to catch the slough at high tide - only had a short stretch at the end of the paddle fighting the outgoing flow (wasn’t very strong).
Saw lots of wildlife including a beaver who gave us a rather rude “slap” as we approached his domain! Cool Stuff!!
Posted by Mike on 08/15 at 07:18 AMAs I mentioned yesterday, the indexes were down at the opening. However the Nasdaq 100 pushed them up (the same as yesterday and the day before yesterday), back to the neutral territory again. Money flow on the index charts, so far, remains to be the same as yesterday at close (see mine yesterday's "Nasdaq 100" post). The only difference is that the 1-min charts have neutral money flow and on 5-min chart money flow is moving down and could become negative. I would continue to monitor 5-min chart to see whether it become bearish - so far it is bullish.
Right now, I would not try to guess whether this decline could be strong. For this, I would recommend monitoring 60-min index charts (1 bar = 1 hour). So far, the money flow on that chart is positive which suggests that the trend on this frame is still positive and that even if we see a decline, the indexes still have prover to come back to their highs.
Another important on my opinion point is the strong bullish volume we had yesterday on all indexes. This volume surge may lead to the shift in the supply/demand and at least to halt the current advance.
P.S. You may check money flow for S&P 500, DJI, Nasdaq 100, Russell 200 and other indexes on the MarketVolume's charts (MV Charts)
The fact that the volume down could mean that main movements in investments positions of "Big Guys" is over.
We had another day of side-way trading when the Nasdaq 100 index was pushing up while the rest of the market was trying to dive down. The difference between yesterday's and today's trading is that today we had stronger bullish volume on the Nasdaq 100. It is already seventh positive trading session in a row on the Nasdaq 100. The other main indexes (DJI, S&P 500 and Russell 2000) are almost three weeks in side-way action. I would risk to say that today's volume on the Nasdaq 100 could trigger a decline.
So far the Money Flow
- on 1-min chart is negative (bearish) on the Nasdaq 100, DJI and S&P 500
- on 5-min chart is positive (bullish) on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 and neutral on DJI
- on 15-min chart is positive on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 and neutral on DJI
- on 30-min chart is negative on the Nasdaq 100, DJI and S&P 500
- on 1-hour chart is negative (bearish) on the S&P 500 and DJI and neutral on the Nasdaq 100
From the money flow (volume) prospective I would say that there is a possibility to sea decline tomorrow at the market open (because of negative money flow on 1-min chart). If this happens then I would monitor money flow on 5-min and 15-min charts. If the money flow on these charts become negative (bearish) then I would expect stronger decline (on 30-min and 1-hour charts money flow is already negative).
Today was one of the day when the S&P 500 did not reflect the opposite trend of US Dollar - US Dollar Index went up, yet, the S&P 500 index remained flat. There could be two explanation of such behavior: a) the patter is broken and S&P 500 and US Dollar trend will not be correlated, or b) the S&P 500 index will catch it later by stronger movement down.
In my Sunday's "US Dollar and S&P 500" I mentioned that if October 21st high is broken than it could mean that bulls are taking over. This high was broken on the S&P 500, DJI and Nasdaq 100. However, the break out was very weak and the indexes retraced back down. I would not like to be in a long on such weak trend. There are too many negative signals on the leading indicators for me to be Bullish. It could be premature to play short, yet I would not bet on any bullish signals right now. I would rather stay in cash.
Worth checking:
- DJU (Dow Jones Utilities) index is already in correction
- DJT Bullish volume surge on October 23, 2010 extremely strong;
- Starting from October 14, 2010, the US Dollar shows the possibility of recovery;
- Yes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and DJI are trading close to their highs, however, the trading is very weak;
- Despite the fact that S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJI are close to the top, advance decline volume and issues ratios for these indexes are trending down.
- Huge volume surges in period from October 13 until October 20, 2010 have to be played out somehow on the supply/demand balance...
P.S. Advance decline and volume indicators for US indexes could be found onwww.MarketVolume.com
We already may see on ETFs that Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ and NQ) will be a little bit behind. I would not bet on this swing and would not try to play bullish signals that could be followed by that swing. Because of the side-way trading, many technical indicators, especially on lower time-frame charts are undefined and not clear - I would wait or at least half of hour after opening.
A few interesting points that I would consider worth attention.
- Yesterday we had strongly oversold (extremely low) advance/decline issues and advance/decline volume readings on the NYSE Composite and S&P 500 indexes. As a rule after that we may see bounce up.
- Volatility on the longer-term frames is rising which is bearish sign.
- We had 2-day up-move in US Dollar index. Up-move in dollar favors bears.
A few points to consider:
- it is already sixth trading session in a row as S&P 500 and DJI indexes have wild swings on high volume at the current resistance level;
- today's advance was accompanied by high volume and it could be assumed that negative money flow accumulated yesterday has been compensated by today's positive money flow accumulation;
- volatility is increasing - this would favor bearish trading;
- yesterday's extremely low advance/decline readings on NYSE and S&P 500 are still may affect he trend and push indexes higher;
- QQQQ, SPY and other ETFs advanced slightly after the market closed.
So far technical indicators on 5-min and 15-min charts are slightly bearish. 30-min and hourly chart have mixed signals and I would consider them neutral. I we see a decline tomorrow after the market opens (as suggested by smaller time-frame chart) I would keep an eye on 30-min charts for bearish signals.
As I mentioned a week ago in my "Strong Volume" post on October 16, 2010 "if market is predisposed to reverse its trend it does not mean it will happen tomorrow. It could happen tomorrow, yet, we still may see a week or even two weeks of side-way trading." - since October 13, 2010 the S&P 500, DJI, Russell 2000 and other indexes could be considered in the side-way action. The Nasdaq 100 index could be considered moving side-way since October 18, 2010.
As I commented over the past week, this side-way trading was supported by very strong increase in volume and was very volatile. It is not a common thing to see such huge trading volume at the top. As a rule, at the resistance levels volume surges are smaller and more prolonged in time, while at support levels volume surges are very strong. I have scrolled index charts over the past 10 years and I was not able to find any occurrence of such strong increase in daily volume on the S&P 500 and DJI history. Some similar, but smaller increase in volume was noted in period from April 14 until April 19, 2010 when the indexes were traded at the same high levels. My neighbor would say "There's some serious sh... is going on that market"
The critical point on mine view is that on last trading day of the week (Friday, October 22, 2010) volume was down to its normal level. The volatility was down as well. I would even say that volatility was very low, "like a silence before storm". I have already mentioned on Friday (see "Low Trading Volume" post) that such decrease in volume and volatility could imply that the period of movements in investments positions of "Big Guys" could be over; which could mean that the next week could show who won (Bulls or Bears) and whether the market (S&P 500, DJI and Nasdaq 100 indexes) will be trending up or down. Conservative traders who does want to spend a lot of time on technical analysis could simply wait when either October 19th low or October 21st high is broken and then make a trading decision.
On the other hand I will not be surprised to see the market at the same level next week. The Election Day is coming and I do not think that some political leaders would like to see any type of crash or strong move down right now. In 2008 the stock market crashed too deep down. I was always under impression that the market was over-pushed down artificially by some "Big Players". This is why we had in 2009 very strong recovery in short period of time. In 2008 the stock market played on the hand of some party and it looks like now it is helping the same guys. But this is another story, I'm not a politician and I do not play conspiracy games - it may drag away from "cold-blooded' and unemotional analysis. Just in some cases, some weird market swings could be very difficult to explain from the prospective of technical analysis.
Coming back to the technical indicators I would say that
- The daily charts remain to be bullish, yet I see strong overbought signals, especially on the volume based technical indicators. The volatility on daily charts is going up, which is usually happened before Bear markets.
- The hourly charts have mixed signals - some indicators and some indexes are bullish and other indicators and indexes are bearish. The common thing between all indexes on hourly charts is that all of them have overbought signals.
- 30- and 15-min charts could be considered slightly positive: you may see some positive Money Flow, however at the same time you may see negative divergence in the Money Flow.
- Smaller time-frame, after Friday's quiet trading, is very neutral, yet, I would say that some indicators have tendency to become negative.
Note: by referring to volume and advance/decline based technical indicators I refer to MarketVolume charts. See NYSE, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DJI, Russell 2000...
It is worth mentioning that US Dollar index has generated number of oversold signals and many technical indicators on this index indicate bullish sentiment. If the US Dollar reverses and moves up it could be as trigger for the stock market to go down. At the current moment I focus some on mine attention on dollar simply because over the last three month the S&P 500 index trend is chronically opposite to the US Dollar index trend. It's like some invisible hand is trying to direct the stock market by using US Dollar.
Chart #1: The US Dollar and S&P 500 index daily chart with elements of technical analysis applied to the US Dollar indexSo far the indicators continue to be "lazy", mainly because of low volatility. To monitor market I simply increased indicators' bar period settings on 1-min charts.
So far, I would say the odds are better to see indexes further down.
